Cakes’ NFL Saturday Divisional Round Predictions + Picks

King Yabo said it best in his Wild Card blog – but the Wild Card round of the playoffs was not great. Really made me happy to have had plans that cut into the amount I was able to watch (minus Bucs/Commanders, that game was FUN). Despite the slow start, I’m thinking this weekend’s Divisional Round will have plenty more excitement and drama in store for us. Let’s get right into it.

Texans @ Chiefs (-8.5) – Saturday at 3:30 CST

Chiefs are obviously heavy favorites coming into this one – no matter how much people say they’re lucky (they are pretty lucky), they also know how to win. This isn’t the OG flashy Chiefs, but they have proved year after year that if nothing else, they are better at winning than everyone right now.

The Texans are also a far cry from where they want to be in terms of offensive performance. Stroud and Co. haven’t been as dominant as expected all year long; and though Joe Mixon has given this team a great run game to lean on, they’re gonna need a lot more to stay in this game in Kansas City.

I think this game starts off slow in the cold, but the Chiefs take an early lead and keep the Texans offense on a short leash outside of a chunk play or two in the 1st half. Chiefs score out of the half and feel pretty comfortable the rest of 2nd half which allows for some Texans points without ever truly threatening the 2x reigning champs. Final Score: Chiefs 24 Texans 14

Bets:

Pacheco ATTD (+160)

Kelce 50 Rec Yds + Nico Collins 50 Rec Yds (+100)

Commanders @ Lions (-8.5) – Saturday at 7:00 CST

Another titan #1 seed against an up and coming QB. The Lions are slightly heavier 8.5 point favorites than the Chiefs and I think I love it. The Commanders offense mixing with the Texans defense would be disgusting, but the fact of the matter is the Commanders do not have near the game-wrecking pass rush that the Texans do. The Lions offense (led by future Bears Head Coach Ben Johnson) is way too much to contain, and even though the Commanders offense has been generally fun this season, they won’t have the fire power to keep up against Aaron Glenn’s defense.

Lions start hot and stay hot. Commanders punch back but not enough times. Lions will be in control from start to finish on their way to the NFC Championship. Final Score: Lions 38 Commanders 27 …. this is totally gonna be a nail-biter now, right? Now I’m nervous… NOT

Bets:

Lions -8.5 (-112)

Gibbs and Monty ATTD Parlay (+146)

Terry McLaurin ATTD (+110)

I’ll post my Sunday preview and picks tomorrow. Song of the WEEKEND: New Shoes by Paolo Nutini. Trust.

Cakes